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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-08-16T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15746/-1
CME Note: The source is a large prominence eruption near S30E25 in SDO imagery, occurring around 2020-08-16T17:01Z; the eruption is observed in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304Å. A B1.2 flare measured by GOES-Primary that starts at 2020-08-16T17:01Z and peaks at 2020-08-16T17:26Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-08-19T22:32Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15752/1
Model Inputs:
2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-25.0, Lat.=-8.0, Speed=541.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2020-08-17T00:21Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-08-19T22:32Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =18.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.8
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2020-08-19T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200817_002100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 53.23 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Colin Komar (M2M Office) on 2020-08-17T17:18Z

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